When discussing the world after the advent of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), we often find ourselves pondering a question: In the future, where AI is highly advanced, which professions will be able to resist being replaced? Currently, many articles discuss this issue based on the current capabilities of AI, but few delve deeply into the application limitations of AGI and the essential characteristics of professions.
At the beginning of this year, there were voices claiming that craftsmen like electricians and gardeners would not be replaced by AI. However, just half a year later, we have already begun to see the early signs of technological development. From a technological perspective, these professions may face significant challenges within the next ten years. However, the process of technological substitution is not just a matter of technical feasibility; it also involves considerations like policy and social acceptance.
Looking at it from a long-term perspective, no profession is absolutely safe. The future is full of uncertainties, and hollow predictions are of no real value. Therefore, this article aims to explore the characteristics of professions that make them more resilient in the face of AI’s tide, or, in other words, more likely to survive longer. Instead of limiting the discussion to specific professions, it is better to explore their core attributes and their potential to resist AI substitution.
Professions That Should Have Been Replaced by Existing Technology
Interestingly, some professions, though technically replaceable by existing technology, have not been replaced. The reason lies in the fact that the essence of these professions has far transcended their original functions.
Take athletes as an example. Although we can create robots that run faster than Usain Bolt, the speed records set by machines can only become a niche form of entertainment. Sports have evolved into a form of spectacle, the value of which lies in the passion and perseverance of human athletes. Furthermore, imperfection and randomness are highlights of these professions — like a regrettable missed shot or a crucial mistake.
Similarly, the professions of electricians and gardeners could technically be replaced by AI, but their work might also evolve to provide unique experiences and personalized services. This is similar to the early 20th century when industrialization made mass production possible, yet people still showed a strong interest in handmade crafts, as evidenced by the popularity of artisanal craftspeople. Similarly, although horses as a mode of transportation have long been phased out, equestrian riders have now become a more prestigious profession.
The More “Abstract” the Profession, the Harder It Is to Replace
AI’s core strength lies in automation, signifying a significant leap in productivity. However, professions less closely related to productivity seem to be safer.
This “safety distance” has two dimensions:
First, those professions that are productive but whose outcomes are hard to realize in the short term and difficult to assess in terms of quality. For instance, jobs involving long-term planning or exploratory research. Economists are a prime example. Their advantage lies in the difficulty of making simple judgments about the quality of their outcomes, making it challenging to find a superior AI replacement.
Secondly, there are professions that are less connected to productivity, such as religious leaders or politicians. The essence of these jobs lies in their roles at the social, cultural, and emotional levels. Religious leaders play irreplaceable roles in providing spiritual comfort and maintaining community cohesion; politicians guide public opinion, handle complex interpersonal relations, and formulate policies. The effectiveness of these abilities depends entirely on how much their followers believe in them. Faith makes it real.
Professions That Require Responsibility
Professions like spokespeople, supervisors, and sponsors might meet certain technical standards with AI, but another key aspect of these jobs is bearing responsibility. Often, these professions involve complex issues related to ethics, law, and social responsibility, requiring human judgment and accountability.
For example, the responsibility issue with autonomous vehicles is not just a technical challenge but also a matter of responsibility and ethics. When an accident occurs, should the autonomous driving system, the vehicle owner, or the manufacturer be held responsible? These questions involve complex human ethics and legal judgments, subjective issues that are beyond AI’s current capabilities.
Professions That Must Be Performed by Humans
Some professions, due to their unique nature, must be performed by humans. For example, participants in drug trials. Although AI can conduct numerous simulation experiments and animal testing plays a crucial role in medical research, human involvement remains an indispensable part of the drug development process. The complexity and uniqueness of the human body make human participation a necessary element in the final stages of drug trials.
Professions Requiring Human Emotional Experience
For instance, nannies, nurses, and psychologists — these professions are not just about technical capability but also about providing deep human connections and emotional support. In the next decade, even though robots might technically perform many similar tasks, they lack the warmth and empathy of humans.
You might chat with a robot on a regular day, but during vulnerable moments, a listener or someone who can share experiences is more important. The emotional support and understanding humans provide are difficult for AI to replicate. Professional caregivers and mental health workers do more than just execute tasks; they provide comfort, understanding, and profound interpersonal connections, a facet of human interaction that technology cannot fully replicate. For instance, a pregnant woman would find solace and understanding more with someone who has also experienced childbirth.
Sword-bearer (From The Three-Body Problem)
Finally, let’s look at an interesting example: the “Sword-bearer.” This role symbolizes trust, responsibility, and protection. After all, would you dare let AI take on the role of a sword-bearer?
In Conclusion
As mentioned at the beginning of the article, no profession is 100% safe from being replaced by AI. The so-called “human nature” and “perception” are based on our current distinction between humans and robots. But in the future, this distinction might become increasingly blurred. Once humans can no longer distinguish between a real person and a robot at the perceptual level, theoretically, all professions could be replaced by AI.
Above, we have only listed a few professions as examples. But this topic is far more extensive and in-depth.
What are your thoughts and insights? Feel free to share your views in the comments section.